Study foresees heightened measles epidemic risk for Florida
Measles is making a comeback. Once considered eliminated from the United States, the disease has been popping up around the country as vaccine coverage declines.
Measles, once considered eradicated in the United States, is resurfacing as vaccine coverage drops. Florida is now contemplating removing its measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine mandate for school attendance. A new University of Maryland study warns that such a policy shift could trigger the most significant measles epidemic in the country in nearly five centuries.
Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 28, 2026, the research indicates that declining MMR vaccine coverage could make Florida susceptible to a large outbreak with catastrophic consequences.
Measles is one of the most contagious human viruses, with a 650% surge in cases between 2024 and 2025. Abba Gumel, a distinguished professor of mathematics at the University of Maryland and co-author of the study, emphasized the importance of this case, noting its implications beyond the southeastern United States. Between January and August 2026, 3,471 measles cases had been confirmed across 45 states, Washington, D.C., and New York City, as vaccination hesitancy and exemptions grew.
To predict the potential outcomes of Florida's proposed repeal of its vaccine mandate, the researchers developed a transmission model based on a recent Texas outbreak and incorporated Florida-specific data. The model revealed that even without the removal of the vaccine mandate, Florida's current vaccination coverage is insufficient to prevent sustained measles transmission.
Simulations showed that a decline in MMR coverage following the removal of school-entry requirements would exacerbate the outbreak potential, with pediatric deaths not seen since pre-vaccination eras.
Alice Oveson, the study's first author and a Ph.D. student in applied mathematics, statistics, and scientific computation at UMD, highlighted that vaccinating a child is three times more effective at reducing transmission than vaccinating an adult. The disparity arises from children's greater face-to-face interactions compared to adults. Oveson likened the situation to a wildfire risk, stating that a large unvaccinated population, including children, creates a perfect setup for a deadly outbreak.
Gumel pointed out that school-entry vaccination mandates have long been an effective public health policy tool for preventing disease spread and mortality. Strengthening adult immunity through catch-up vaccination and implementing targeted behavioral measures like masking and isolation could also help mitigate outbreak severity.
However, neither approach can compensate for declines in childhood MMR coverage. Florida's resistance to behavioral interventions and high exemption rates (5.9%) further complicate the situation, with exemptions currently at 5.9%, well above the national average of 4.2%.
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