Stocks cautious in Asia as oil gains, yields rise

Asian stock markets started cautiously on Monday as oil prices surged and U.S. bond yields climbed higher, with concerns persisting over the likelihood of a resolution between the United States and Iran. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing Iran's apparent desperation to finalize a deal.

Despite Iran's less accommodating stance, talks were expected to continue this week. Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $106.00 a barrel, marking a 17% gain this month, while U.S. crude futures increased 1.1% to $93.47 a barrel. Diesel prices, which have hit all-time highs far above crude levels, have added to inflationary pressures.

Central banks have responded to the rising inflation by raising interest rates, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to follow suit during its upcoming meeting. Markets now forecast a 66% chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with tightening measures expected to continue into mid-2024. Strong U.S. economic data, including a robust GDPNow forecast of 5.0% growth for the current quarter, has fueled expectations of corporate earnings growth despite rising bond yields.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure predicts strong growth across Asia, Europe, and the U.S., with both global regions experiencing broad-based expansion. Despite high energy prices, the global economic outlook remains positive, according to Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist. Higher policy rates are expected to persist beyond the next year, reflecting the ongoing impact of rising energy costs and tightening monetary policy.