Putin relying on massive long-range strikes to force Ukraine to surrender by 2027 — ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly shifting to a new strategy that involves massive long-range ballistic missile and jet-powered drone strikes in an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender by spring 2027, according to a recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Kremlin-aligned military blogger, who has previously acknowledged the lack of progress on the frontline, has now warned against relying on the assumption that Russia can sustain its attacks indefinitely.

Analysts believe that Putin may be reconsidering his previous "theory of victory," which relied on the assumption that the Russian military could continue advancing until Ukraine surrendered. The ongoing Russian strike campaign assumes that Ukraine will not be able to intercept Russian jet-powered drones and will face critical infrastructure damage during the winter months of 2026-2027.

Despite the recent drone attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv, ISW notes that Putin likely expects Ukraine to capitulate before the spring of 2027. The Russian leader has stated that Ukraine "must feel" Russia's "retaliatory" strikes, suggesting his intention to escalate the campaign into winter.