Nigeria: Nigeria Faces the World's Highest Projected Death Toll From Super El Niño Heat - What Could Save Lives

Researchers from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab have projected that the upcoming super El Niño heat could result in an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. The Sahel region of Africa, spanning countries like Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, is expected to face the greatest loss of life due to the heat brought on by this year's strong El Niño.

Nigeria is projected to have the highest heat mortality among these four countries, with nearly half of the 66,800 additional deaths compared to a normal year. The research team, led by Michael Greenstone, used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal weather forecast to estimate temperature changes and then translated those changes into projected heat-related deaths using peer-reviewed Climate Impact Lab research.

The study found that impoverished regions are more vulnerable to heat-related deaths as they have fewer resources to protect people from extreme heat. Older people, children, and those with chronic health conditions are particularly at risk. Governments can take steps to protect people by providing indoor cooling options, as even in low-income countries, the extra electricity needed for air conditioning would only be enough to run one LED light bulb for four months.