Middle East Oil Exports Rebound to 12.8 Million Bpd

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged to 12.8 million barrels per day this month, according to preliminary data from Kpler, reported by Reuters. Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of this increase, redirecting oil flows from the west to the east, where they load the crude on tankers in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfer.

The Kpler data reveals that Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude at a rate of 5.4 million barrels daily this month, with exports from the Ras Tanura port on the Persian Gulf totaling 3.6 million barrels daily. This is nearly in line with the country's daily average for 2025, per Kpler. The increase in Middle Eastern exports is attributed to the pipeline outage, but it may also indicate a growing confidence in using the Strait of Hormuz, as traffic there rises.

Matt Smith, Kpler's director of commodity research, noted this trend on Friday, as quoted by CNBC. Other Gulf producers seem to be ramping up their exports as well, with Kpler reporting a total of 13.2 million barrels for last Wednesday, showing an improvement over the average daily oil flow rate of around 17 million barrels before the war began.

However, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains weak, with only 10 vessels reported in the past week, down from an 18-vessel 10-day moving average. This decrease might be due to dark mode movements to avoid detection and potential attacks. Iranian media reported explosions in Hormuz this weekend, with explosions possibly caused by missiles fired at vessels in the waterway.

Some analysts believe that strikes will become more frequent following the U.S. rejection of Iran's peace proposal.