MCX revenue seen growing 19% annually through FY30, says Macquarie

Macquarie Equity Research predicts MCX revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 19 percent through FY30, fueled by rising investor participation and new commodity products. Currently valued at ₹2,302 crore in FY26, MCX's revenue is expected to reach ₹3,992 crore by FY29, with growth rates of 24.5 percent in FY27, 22.4 percent in FY28, and 13.8 percent in FY29.

The expansion is attributed to a larger investor base and a broader product range, as India's commodities market is still in its early stages compared to other global markets. MCX's traded client count grew from 0.9 million in FY24 to 2.1 million in FY26, though this still lags behind equity market participation. New products, such as options notional turnover and smaller-ticket contracts, are projected to support further growth.

MCX's first-mover advantage has secured about 98 percent market share, but the brokerage warns of regulatory risks and potential competition from the National Stock Exchange. MCX's EBITDA margin of 71.5 percent in FY26 is nearing its peak, indicating that future growth will be more dependent on revenue expansion.