How bootmaking in Victorian England helps us think about the future of work

Imagine stepping into the boots of a Victorian bootmaker in England. This was no simple task; it required skill, experience, and time. In 19th-century England, bootmaking was a leading industry, employing around 220,000 workers by 1851. However, the arrival of sewing machines capable of handling heavy leather brought about a significant transformation. These machines increased productivity, allowing workers to produce four to eight times as many boots in the same time frame.

The rise of these machines led to job losses, with two-thirds of artisanal bootmaking jobs disappearing by 1911. Yet, as economic historian Hillary Vipond points out, new technologies don't just lead to job destruction; they also create new jobs. Vipond's research, based on English census records from 1851 to 1911, revealed that while 153,000 traditional bootmaking jobs were rendered obsolete, 140,000 new roles were created. These included positions in machine operation, sales, management, and administration.

However, these new jobs were not evenly distributed. Nearly 44% of them emerged in just two counties: Northamptonshire and Leicestershire. Furthermore, the new jobs primarily went to younger workers. Vipond found that incumbent artisanal workers were largely unaffected by the job losses, as they did not have to move to seek factory work. Instead, the younger generation stopped entering the dying trade, leading to a massive collapse in entry within these cohorts.

One key insight from Vipond's study is that the artisanal trade persisted because there was still demand for high-quality handmade boots, despite the advent of cheaper factory-made boots. Women, who were predominantly binders sewing leather pieces together, were the most affected by the new machines. While nearly the same number of new jobs were created for women, they were concentrated in Northamptonshire and Leicestershire. In contrast, men had a broader range of tasks and skills that remained in demand.

Vipond's study on Victorian bootmaking sheds light on how the workforce transitions when faced with new technology. While incumbent workers mostly kept their jobs, young workers found themselves without opportunities in the declining trade. The creation of new jobs became crucial in keeping people employed. However, a new question arises with the advent of generative AI: will machines almost immediately outcompete human labor for these new jobs?

And who will bear the cost of this transition will depend on how quickly these technologies are adopted.