Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy

Energy forecasts in Europe are not a reliable indicator of future energy strategy, according to a recent Dutch Climate and Energy Outlook. Models often predict a stable gas price, but history has shown how unpredictable gas prices can be. In September 2026, Dutch gas prices were three times higher than the model's long-term assumption.

However, the real issue lies in policymakers treating these models as accurate predictions when making long-term infrastructure investments. Gas prices are influenced by a complex mix of factors, including weather, storage, geopolitical events, and supply dynamics. Treating the modelled price as a certainty can lead to misguided investments in certain technologies.

A more prudent approach is to consider a range of possible outcomes, including low, central, high, and shock scenarios. This allows for the evaluation of investments based on their resilience to different gas-price environments. Renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, storage, and efficiency measures offer a different risk profile compared to traditional gas-based solutions.

While they too have uncertainties, they provide a portfolio approach to energy that is less vulnerable to the volatility of gas prices. This diversification can reduce exposure to fuel cost fluctuations and provide more stable, predictable operating costs. Therefore, policy-making should focus on selecting investments that remain viable across various gas-price scenarios, rather than relying on a single forecast.