EUR/USD: Consensus shifts lower on Dollar resilience – Societe Generale
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale notes that EUR/USD forecasts have been repeatedly revised down as Dollar strength persists. While consensus has moved from 1.20 to 1.16 and Societe Generale now sees 1.15, client discussions suggest markets are even more Dollar-bullish.
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes reports a shift in consensus expectations for the EUR/USD exchange rate, citing the persistent strength of the US Dollar. Initially, forecasts predicted the rate would reach 1.20 at the start of the year, with Societe Generale projecting 1.14. However, the current consensus now stands at 1.16, while Juckes has adjusted his forecast to 1.15.
Market sentiment among clients suggests a stronger bullish stance towards the Dollar than even these projections indicate. Factors contributing to the Dollar's resilience include strong US economic data, rising inflation, and a more cautious global economic environment. Should higher inflation and robust economic performance continue, the Dollar Index could potentially reach its highest level in years, while EUR/USD may plummet to a new low.
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