El Nino may turn 'very strong' by late 2026: IRI

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University predicts that the El Nino weather pattern will become very strong between late 2026 and early 2027, potentially ranking among the strongest El Nino events on record, according to its latest forecast published on September 21. The Nino 3.4 index, a crucial indicator of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September.

All 22 climate models surveyed by the IRI, comprising 13 dynamical and nine statistical models, forecast very strong El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter. The IRI assigns a 100% probability of El Nino occurring through February 2027, but this probability drops to 61% by mid-2027. The event may also be accompanied by a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from September to December 2026, before returning to neutral conditions in early 2027.

For India, El Nino typically brings weaker monsoon rainfall and can impact crop yields, although the IOD can sometimes mitigate these effects. The combination of El Nino and a positive IOD is particularly significant for India, as El Nino's impact is influenced by various other factors, including regional sea-surface temperatures and winter weather patterns.

While the IRI's forecast indicates elevated climate risk for India, it does not provide precise rainfall or agricultural output forecasts.