China and US reveal full product list for tariff cuts

US soybean futures experienced a rise on Tuesday due to bargain buying, but gains were limited after China decided to exclude soybeans from a list of US agricultural products eligible for tariff cuts. Wheat also saw a slight increase after falling to a six-week low the previous day, as traders hoped diplomatic efforts could ease disruptions to Black Sea grain exports. China's decision to maintain tariffs on US soybeans would limit demand for US cargoes as the harvest begins, according to a Singapore-based oilseed trader.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.2% to $12.90-1/2 a bushel, marking its weakest point since August 31. Wheat edged up 0.1% to $6.89-1/4 a bushel, after dropping to its lowest level since August 19 the prior session. Corn posted a 0.3% gain, reaching $5.24-1/4 a bushel.

China is planning to reduce tariffs on various US agricultural products, including corn, wheat, meat, and dairy, but has excluded soybeans from the tariff-reduction list jointly announced by China’s commerce ministry and the White House. This omission means US soybeans will still face an additional 10% tariff, which traders warn is too steep for private importers to handle, despite Chinese state buyers increasing purchases.

Wheat traders remained focused on diplomatic efforts aimed at easing disruptions to Black Sea exports, even as ongoing attacks persisted in Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy disclosed on Friday that India, Turkey, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries were participating in talks to unblock shipping in the Black Sea; Turkey had also submitted proposals to Moscow regarding the security of shipping.

According to a Reuters analysis using industry data, Russia could potentially resume up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea if diplomatic efforts result in a ceasefire, allowing for a swift restart. US farmers have already harvested 18% of the corn crop and 17% of soybeans, maintaining an average pace over the past five years, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday.

Additionally, crop-monitoring service MARS reduced its yield forecasts for maize and sugar beet in the European Union on Monday, citing late summer rainfall failing to reverse damage caused by heat and drought in the region.