BSE shares fall 2%, down 30% in 4 months. Why Macquarie is bullish while Jefferies is cautious

The BSE shares experienced a 2% decline on Monday, with a 30% drop from its May peak, amid mixed views from brokerages on the stock. As of Monday, BSE shares were trading at Rs 3,112 on the NSE, down more than 30% from its 52-week high of Rs 4,446.80 in May. The stock has fallen around 8% in the past month, but gained 19% in 2026 so far and 54% in the past year.

In the longer term, BSE shares have delivered impressive returns of 627% in three years and a remarkable 2,122% in five years. The company currently has a market capitalisation of less than Rs 1.29 lakh crore.

Macquarie sparked interest in BSE shares by tagging it as a 'Challenger' and initiating coverage with an 'Outperform' rating, targeting a price of Rs 4,000, indicating a potential upside of over 25% from the current price of Rs 3,191.50. Macquarie highlighted BSE's strong performance in a 12% Total Addressable Market Compound Annual Growth Rate (TAM CAGR) market, projecting 16% revenue growth for FY26-30 and margins nearing 70%. However, the broker noted that the Closing Auction Session (CAS) poses a near-term challenge.

On the other hand, Jefferies remains cautious about BSE shares, maintaining an 'Underperform' outlook with a target price of Rs 2,940, suggesting an 8% downside potential. The brokerage flagged several risks to BSE's revenue, including the impact of the newly introduced Closing Auction Session (CAS), which has caused confusion among traders and led to lower participation. Jefferies also highlighted the potential headwinds from RBI's bank guarantee norms and the reduction in BSE's contract share.