Argentina Slides Toward Recession as JP Morgan Cuts 2026 Growth to 1.5%

JP Morgan, the largest US bank, has downgraded its forecast for Argentina's economic growth to 1.5 percent in 2026, citing the country's worst month of activity in six years. The revision, announced on September 25, 2026, came just four days after the bank had previously forecast a growth rate of 2.7 percent. The downgrade prompted JP Morgan to cut its full-year growth forecast for 2026 from 2.7 percent to 1.5 percent.

The revised forecast for the July-to-September quarter now expects output to fall at an annualized rate of 4 percent, which is the rate the economy would shrink over a year if the quarter's pace continued. The bank expects exports to grow by 11 percent in 2026, while private consumption is projected to rise by just 0.4 percent. Analysts noted that no month since 2004 has fallen further than the 2.9 percent contraction observed in July 2026.

The bank's analysis suggests that mining and energy exports generate limited activity in domestic markets, while other sectors experienced declines. The bank also highlighted the persistent constraints of contractionary monetary and fiscal policies, which are expected to continue.