Airlines say ticket prices could stay high even if jet fuel costs fall. Here’s why
Travelers could be stuck paying high airfares even if oil and jet fuel prices fall , major U.S. airlines and industry analysts say. The price of jet fuel shot up after the Iran war began and retreated sharply in the spring before surging again as the summer went on. Such fluctuations make it harder for airlines to plan ahead and give them a reason to be cautious about lowering ticket prices,…
Airlines predict that ticket prices may remain high even if the cost of jet fuel decreases, according to major U.S. airlines and industry experts. The price of jet fuel has risen rapidly since the start of the Iran war, fluctuating significantly throughout the summer. This volatility makes it difficult for airlines to plan ahead and maintain ticket prices, according to Brett House, a Columbia Business School economist.
Jet fuel costs have risen faster than oil prices, due to increased crude prices and limited supply of the refined fuel. Although airlines have cut less profitable flights and raised fares and baggage fees, these measures have only partially covered the soaring fuel expenses. Airfares have not kept pace with fuel prices, despite the drop in fuel costs.
The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index fell from $4.88 per gallon in early April to a wartime low of $2.70 in June, but average fares have stayed elevated. Airfares rose from $405 in the last quarter of 2025 to $436 in the April-June period, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The delay in airlines' decision-making process, factoring fuel costs months in advance, and the timing of ticket sales contribute to the disconnect between fuel prices and airfares.
While airlines can't charge more for already sold tickets if fuel prices spike, they are adjusting schedules and prices for the rest of the year. U.S. airfares were 23% higher than a year ago in August, and the average domestic round-trip fare during Thanksgiving and Christmas travel was 31% and 23% higher than last year. Globally, jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, reaching $209 per barrel in early April before falling slightly to $195 a barrel in mid-September.
Jet fuel is expected to account for nearly one-third of airlines' operating expenses this year, up from a quarter in 2025. Airline executives are concerned about the ongoing high fuel prices and are cutting flight schedules and expected growth.
Written by urgent.news from Fast Company's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
