Slots You Must Skip

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, features a bot developed by user abrownfox001 that utilizes a TWAP-based prediction trigger system. This system involves a strategy of skipping certain 5-minute slots based on specific conditions.

One such condition is when the time-weighted average price (TWAP) age exceeds the freshness cap. In this case, the bot considers the snapshot invalid, leading it to skip the slot. Another reason for skipping is when there is no new stamped TWAP or the last value is deemed dead. Additionally, the bot will skip a slot if the open reference is missing or guessed incorrectly, the binary ask/bid price is outside the 45-55 cent range, or if the trade occurs too late in the slot to establish a thesis.

In the early stages of the slot (within the first 30 seconds) or the final 30 seconds, the bot may also skip the slot if the book is thin, there is no position yet, or if the market conditions have changed significantly. These skips are logged as "SKIP" in the system with various reasons, such as "stale_twap," "no_open_ref," "ask_outside_band," "late_slot," or "no_edge_after_fees."

The bot's logs should primarily display skipped slots, as these represent the strategy's successes. If the logs primarily show filled slots, it indicates that the strategy is flawed or not functioning correctly. The bot's policy is to skip slots where it deems the market conditions unfavorable, ensuring a more profitable trading experience.