Scott Kennedy on the Xi-Trump summit and US-China instability

Southeast Asia is experiencing a combination of relief and caution following the recent Xi-Trump summit, which has seen a thawing of US-China relations. Analysts believe the region could enjoy less pressure and fewer open frictions between the two powers over the South China Sea, but caution remains as some disputes remain unresolved.

Research fellow Lucio Blanco Pitlo III suggests that stable great-power relations, while competitive, can provide more room for third countries to navigate an increasingly complex world. This stability could ease pressure on Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) countries to choose sides, reduce supply-chain disintegration, and lower the intensity of great-power competition in long-standing flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

Beijing views Xi's visit as a step towards a "constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability," emphasizing continued economic engagement, AI dialogue, and cautious handling of Taiwan. However, better US-China relations might revive concerns about a "G2" dynamic, where major powers make decisions affecting the region without meaningful Southeast Asian input.

Analysts warn that any arrangement making decisions about Southeast Asia without regional participation could curtail the agency of Asean states. The absence of the South China Sea in the US read-out of the summit has been seen as an effort to avoid public friction, but tensions in the region remain high.