Israel and the near abroad after October elections

The October 2023 Hamas attack in Israel had a profound impact on the nation, with 68% of Israelis believing the issues surrounding the attack will be central to the upcoming October 2026 elections. This heightened sense of insecurity due to October 7 has led to a more aggressive Israeli security posture in its "near abroad," including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Türkiye, and Iran.

Israeli policies in this region are heavily influenced by popular perceptions of October 7's lessons, as well as the specific government coalition in power post-elections.

The security worldview of Israeli military professionals and the general population is that Israel cannot afford to take chances, and threats must be dealt with before they reach Israeli soil. This has resulted in offensive actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, as well as military moves in Syria against Türkiye. Israel's diplomatic efforts have also been strained, with Türkiye and Saudi Arabia moving away from earlier productive relations with Israel.

The current Israeli government, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, is reluctant to compromise on issues related to Israel's new security worldview and is prioritizing showing no weakness before the elections.

The composition of the Israeli government makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the elections or the path to a new coalition government. However, a weak coalition or a more moderate coalition without Prime Minister Netanyahu could lead to a different approach to Israel's security policies. Prime Minister Netanyahu, despite his current coalition partners, has accepted President Trump's Gaza ceasefire in 2025 and President Biden's in Lebanon in 2024.

Even a more middle-ground Israeli government could be constrained by the post-October 7 Israeli security worldview.