Iran split screen: When US, Israeli interests reach a fork in the road - analysis

Iran's nuclear program has long been a source of contention between the United States and Israel. Both nations share the objective of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, whether due to the immediate existential threat it poses to Israel or the potential for the Islamic Republic to emerge as the dominant power in the region and eventually turn its sights on the United States. This convergence in interests, with the exception of a few years, has been the norm for most of the recent decades.

One notable exception occurred this summer when President Donald Trump's administration struck a deal with Iran, a development that Israeli government and opposition officials deemed a "bad deal." The agreement was criticized for reducing U.S. military pressure on Iran, placing the resolution of the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the deal, and largely neglecting the Iranian ballistic missile threat, which has inflicted significant damage on U.S. military bases and multiple countries across the region.

The Iranian decision to push for an even more humiliating deal for Trump, given his previous concessions, led him to abandon the new deal and the concessions made under the previous one. This shift in strategy resulted in a new reality, with Iran betting on Trump's willingness to continue caving to avoid humiliation. Trump, however, opted for a third path, aiming to outlast Iran by using U.S. military power to harm its economy at a rate more severe than any potential retaliation from the Iranian regime against America and its allies.

While this strategy required months of preparation, it commenced in August when U.S. military power began to significantly impact Iran's economy. The strategy hinged on the belief that Iran would succumb to the pressure before the U.S. midterm elections, allowing Trump to secure a victory and regain some of the nuclear concessions he had previously relinquished.

However, Iran's leadership, comprising a mix of religious fanatics and military hardliners, remains steadfast in their belief that their regime is supported by divine forces and fears any perceived U.S. attempt to topple them.

As the presidential election approaches, Iran's stance remains unchanged. The U.S. administration oscillates between the possibility of immediately striking a deal with Iran post-election and the prospect of escalating the conflict into a full-scale war. The looming fork in the road, five weeks away, hinges on whether Trump will commit to protecting Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the broader region from Iranian hegemony and the eventual acquisition of a nuclear weapon, or if internal Republican pressures force him into another "bad deal" with Iran, undermining Israeli interests and long-term U.S. security objectives.