From Jordan to Lebanon, Israel’s Oct 27 election carries stakes far beyond its borders

Israel's upcoming elections, set for October 27, are of significant concern to its regional neighbors, as the outcome could have far-reaching implications. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been vocal about his intention to continue expanding Israeli influence in the Middle East, including the maintenance of troops in Lebanon and Syria, and the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza.

The polls suggest a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and his opponent, centrist Gadi Eisenkot. Opinion polls in Jordan indicate that the government's most right-wing policies, such as the approval of numerous settlements and calls for the expulsion of over three million Palestinians, pose an existential threat to the Hashemite kingdom. Jordan maintains a delicate balance in its relationship with Israel, as the two countries signed a peace treaty in 1994 and maintain minimal political engagement.

Egypt, Israel's other neighboring country, has a "cold peace" with Israel, characterized by limited security collaboration. The government is wary of a right-wing Israeli administration and hopes for a more pragmatic leader who can help reduce tensions in Gaza without altering Israel's stance on the Palestinian issue.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, but both countries remain uneasy with a right-wing Israeli government, fearing the destabilising effects on the region. Lebanon's situation is dire, with over 4,300 people killed and 329,000 displaced since the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in March.

While Beirut has engaged in talks with Israel to disarm Hezbollah, the far-right government's policies are seen as unlikely to change. President Aoun expressed optimism about the elections, urging Israel to pursue stability, security, and no wars on its borders.