Ex-defense chief: Pre-Oct. 7 warnings from UAE, Egypt never reached military

Egypt’s intelligence chief visited Israel just days before the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and cautioned Israeli officials that Gaza was teetering on the brink of a catastrophic escalation, according to a report by The Atlantic. Kamel arrived at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26, 2023, aboard a chartered plane operated by Egypt’s intelligence service. His visit coincided with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, a conflict Israel often views as a cautionary tale of intelligence mishandling.

High-ranking Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, US, and European officials who were briefed on Kamel’s visit following October 7 stated that he informed Israeli authorities that Hamas was in the final stages of preparing a large-scale assault. The Egyptian diplomat urged Israel to compromise economically with Hamas to avert an escalating situation.

A former Israeli official who was briefed on the meeting revealed that Kamel’s message essentially warned that Gaza was poised to "explode" unless Israel altered its approach. However, Kamel did not disclose the precise date or the specifics of the attack that Hamas would carry out less than two weeks later.

The Egyptian delegation reportedly remained at Ben Gurion Airport for approximately 67 minutes before departing back to Cairo. It remains unclear which Israeli officials Kamel met during his trip. While seven countries believed the visit should have raised red flags within Israel’s top echelons, Netanyahu’s office denied that the prime minister had received any Egyptian warnings after the attack. Tzachi Hanegbi, then-head of Israel’s national-security council, also denied receiving a warning from Kamel.

The September 2023 visit was not Israel’s only intelligence concern. Egypt had been vocal about Hamas’s activities in the days preceding October 7, and the United Arab Emirates’ president Mohamed bin Zayed had also cautioned Netanyahu about the potential for a major attack following intelligence gleaned from Egyptian and Palestinian sources. A UN envoy had even warned on September 27 that the circumstances around Gaza could lead to "grave consequences," as international negotiators worked to prevent an escalation.

Tensions in Gaza had been on the rise in the weeks leading up to the attack. Qatar had halted fuel shipments to Gaza, and Hamas had called for demonstrations at the Erez border crossing. Israel closed the crossing in September following protests. Around 18,000 Gazans held permits to work in Israel, and their inability to cross the border further heightened tensions.

Egyptian, Qatari, and UN negotiators attempted to restore calm through discussions on work permits, fuel supplies, and other measures. These efforts temporarily eased tensions, but Hamas continued preparations for its assault.

Egypt persistently conveyed its concerns up to two days before October 7, though most of the warnings lacked specific details regarding the date, target, or method of the impending attack. Nonetheless, US, Israeli, and Egyptian officials described these warnings as frequent and persistent. The October 7 Hamas attack resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 individuals, primarily civilians, and the seizure of 251 hostages.

Israel subsequently launched a military campaign in Gaza. The impact of the warnings on the outcome remains uncertain, but the newly disclosed details of Kamel’s visit add to ongoing debates about the level of knowledge Israeli officials possessed prior to the October 7 attack and how those warnings were interpreted.