(EDITORIAL from Korea Herald on Sept. 28)

South Korea's population saw a brief boost in births in July, with 24,275 births, an 11.1% increase from the previous year. This marks the highest July figure in seven years, and the first half of the year saw 170,000 births, a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2025. July also saw 22,282 marriages, the highest for the month in 11 years.

These numbers may seem promising, but they can be misleading. The recent improvement is largely due to the arrival of babies born during the COVID-19 pandemic and the second echo-boom generation entering their childbearing years. However, this demographic tailwind cannot last forever as the smaller cohorts behind it become more prominent.

A new body, the Population Strategy Committee, formed by merging 15 central ministries, has been tasked with developing a national population strategy plan for later this year. The committee will have the power to review population-related budgets before they are finalized. However, the committee must act swiftly as time is limited.

Despite the recent progress, the nation has a history of renaming, repackaging, or distributing programs across ministries without making significant changes to household incentives. For instance, a study found that eliminating status competition in private education could have increased the average number of children for women born from 1970 to 1975 from 1.92 to 2.45.

Yet, private tutoring spending reached a record high of 27.5 trillion won ($20.3 billion) in 2025, with the bottom 20% of households spending 8.4% of their income on tutoring compared to 5.1% for the top 20%.

Addressing these forces is crucial, as financial support alone cannot overcome the pressure put on households. Factors like university prestige, the concentration of jobs and opportunities in Seoul, and a labor market divided between secure and insecure tracks also play a role. Without tackling these issues, additional financial assistance may not be enough to encourage families to have more children.

While a fertility rate nearing 0.90 would be a welcome improvement after 0.72 in 2023 and 0.80 in 2025, it would still fall short of the replacement level of 2.1. Despite recent increases in births, the overall outlook remains concerning as the country's natural population decline has persisted for 81 consecutive months. Therefore, the current uptick in births presents a limited window to address the positional arms race in education, create genuine labor market opportunities, and reshape public systems for a shrinking workforce.