«Dieses Mal ist es anders»: Warum der Anlagechef von Lombard Odier bei KI keine Blase sieht

Michael Strobaek, the investment manager at Lombard Odier, dismissed the notion of a KI (Artificial Intelligence) bubble during a recent interview. He maintained that the massive investments in tech companies were well-founded, yet he still favored other stocks. Strobaek described the phrase "This Time Is Different" as one of the most dangerous four words in finance, signifying the dangerous collective illusion of a speculative bubble.

He recognized the tendency of investors to deceive themselves, a lesson he learned from the dot-com bubble in 2000. Strobaek believed that AI was different, being rapidly implemented by companies and displacing highly skilled and well-paid individuals. The adoption of AI was more systematic than the internet's, and investors were aware of the risk of a speculative bubble, perhaps preventing excesses.

Strobaek noted that semiconductor stocks and tech firms from emerging markets were no longer overpriced following recent corrections. The Chinese KI competition, which often provides models for free download, would not surpass American firms despite their significant investments in AI. Strobaek believed this would result in two largely separate ecosystems, with both benefiting from significant computational power and energy.

Circular financing, a practice where tech companies invest in AI startups and receive capital in return, was not a concern for Strobaek, given the large capital available to AI equipment providers. He also saw no red flag in tech firms issuing bonds, as many had solid balance sheets. Strobaek cautioned investors about upcoming IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, which may be overvalued.

He was unsure who would dominate, with three to five major firms potentially emerging. Lombard Odier, confident in the uninterrupted upward trend of KI, recommended a neutral weighting of technology stocks, suggesting clients invest as much as global stock indices prescribe. The expert favored companies in healthcare, finance, utilities, and commodities, alongside emerging market and small-cap stocks, expecting strong growth in all areas.

Strobaek anticipated global prosperity due to massive AI, technology, energy, and defense investments, normalizing interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis.