Budanov: North Korea is learning from Russian-Ukrainian war and arming itself

Paju, South Korea, September 29 — Experts now say it is nearly impossible for North Koreans to escape the country, as the regime of Kim Jong Un has sealed its borders and China has tightened surveillance. Over the past six years, fewer than 100 North Koreans have defected to South Korea, a sharp decline from the hundreds that typically did so each year in the past.

The main reason for this decline is Kim's aim to preserve his family dynasty by keeping the country isolated from the outside world, keeping people in and information out. Chae Yoon-seo, a 29-year-old defector who fled in 2019, said it is currently impossible to bring family members directly from North Korea. She swam across a river into China at night with a smuggler's help, then traveled through Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand before finally flying to South Korea.

Defections to South Korea peaked at over 2,900 in 2009 and remained above 1,000 per year for the next decade, but dropped to just 63 in the first half of 2026, a 33% decrease from the same period in 2025, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry. The border with China, once a key point of escape, has become heavily fortified with fences, cameras, and sand footprints to prevent crossings.

China has also aided North Korea by installing facial recognition cameras and increasing patrol boats and deportation facilities along its northeastern border. North Korean defectors are the primary source of information about the country, but the plunging number of escapes poses a threat to Kim's leadership. If people were allowed to interact with the outside world, they might overthrow the regime or be driven into exile, Kim's expert Fyodor Tertitsky warns.