Are we losing our edge?

The Asian Development Bank, S&P Global Ratings, and the International Monetary Fund have all recently issued similar projections for the Philippines' economic growth. The Asian Development Bank's report, released in September 2026, forecasts a decline in the country's growth to 3.3 percent for the year and 5.1 percent for 2027, down from previous projections of 3.8 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively.

This downward revision is attributed to various risks, including geopolitical tensions, energy disruptions, a potentially severe El Niño, tighter financial conditions, and trade policy uncertainty.

However, the ADB highlights that four ASEAN neighbors – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam – are projected to experience growth improvements, with Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam benefiting from the Asia's growing AI-related technology exports and increased foreign investments. The main concern, though, lies in the educational quality and growth of young Filipinos, which is deteriorating.

Recent Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) scores reveal that the Philippines has slipped to 7th place, behind eight of its ASEAN neighbors, including Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia. In mathematics and reading, the Philippines scored 371 and 367, respectively, compared to Cambodia's 366 and 347.

In contrast, Singapore and Vietnam, with their higher rankings, scored 560, 563, and 535 for science, math, and reading, respectively. This educational decline is particularly alarming, as the Philippines once had an advantage due to its educated and English-speaking workforce, which has now become vulnerable. With the IT-BPM sector expected to generate revenues of $50.5 billion and provide employment for 2.14 million Filipinos by 2028, the country risks losing its competitive edge in the global market.