Why US deal on Greenland could narrow China’s Arctic engagement

The new US-Denmark-Greenland security pact, finalized on Tuesday, could limit China's engagement in the Arctic, especially concerning Greenland's vast mineral resources. This could push China closer to Russia, as suggested by Chinese experts. The deal, signed during heightened US pressure on Denmark and Greenland over the island's future, could also accelerate the securitisation of the Arctic, making Western Arctic nations more hesitant to cooperate with China.

However, it's unlikely to significantly disrupt China's existing Russian Arctic cooperation, which is centered away from Greenland. The agreement, which expands US military presence on Greenland while maintaining Danish control, comes as the US and allies seek to build alternative supply chains for critical minerals, including rare earth elements, to counter China's dominance.

Greenland is rich in resources like rare earth minerals, iron ore, graphite, tungsten, palladium, vanadium, zinc, gold, uranium, and copper. Non-NATO states cannot establish military installations or maintain continuous military presence in Greenland without mutual agreement under the deal. Non-aligned foreign investment in resource extraction and critical infrastructure is also heavily restricted.

Chinese experts note that Beijing was likely aware of the potential impact on its Arctic cooperation with Denmark and other Arctic states. Danish authorities might become more cautious about economic and infrastructure cooperation with China to avoid angering Washington. However, China's commercial presence in Greenland is currently limited, and Chinese companies view the island as a low priority due to commercial and operational constraints.

China's 2018 Arctic policy white paper identifies scientific research, environmental protection, shipping, resource development, and Arctic governance as key interests. Western scrutiny of China's Arctic activities has increased, with Canada recently blocking a Chinese company's attempt to acquire a gold mine. Chinese Arctic interests are primarily in low politics areas like trade, shipping, scientific research, environmental cooperation, and indigenous exchanges.

The agreement could further integrate the Arctic into NATO's security framework, making other Arctic states cautious about working with China. This could potentially affect Chinese participation in scientific research and Arctic governance, adding to Arctic cooperation fragmentation. The deal's impact on China-Russia Arctic cooperation is expected to be limited, as China's cooperation with Russia in shipping routes and energy is primarily focused on the Russian and European sides of the Arctic.