Oil prices slide about 2% as US, Iran explore path out of war

Oil prices experienced a slight decline of approximately 2% on Friday due to increasing optimism surrounding a potential truce between the US and Iran, along with discussions about a possible US ban on diesel exports. However, traders remained cautious as they anticipated possible disruptions to Saudi Arabian production from Houthi fighters. Brent futures experienced a decrease of $2.28, or 2.1%, settling at $104.32 per barrel, while WTI crude fell $2.20, or 2.3%, to $92.41.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York were discussing a phased approach to end the war, which would involve Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the United States lifting its economic blockade on Iran. Despite this, Iran insisted it would not compromise on its nuclear program, even if the US accepted its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which includes lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Market analysts noted that the talk of a potential diesel export ban by the US was creating a widening gap between US crude oil futures and the global Brent benchmark, indicating that markets anticipate reduced crude oil processing by US refiners if their diesel output remains restricted.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan were set to meet to discuss assistance for Saudi Arabia, which has been facing attacks from Houthi fighters aligned with Iran. The Houthis have been launching strikes on the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and attacking Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world's largest energy exporter.

Crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz in the week starting September 20 reached 33.7 million barrels, nearly matching the previous week's levels. Before the start of the Iran war, about 20% of the world's oil supplies passed through the strait. During talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump made it clear that Chinese support for Iran is not acceptable, according to US Ambassador to China David Perdue.

The United States proposed hosting a trilateral meeting between the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, and Russia to discuss efforts to end the 4½-year-long war. Though Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed openness to considering all proposals for a settlement, Moscow still needed to evaluate what was in its best interest. A drone attack damaged the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia, leading to temporary suspension of operations.

Heavy drone strikes on Russian refineries followed discussions at the UN headquarters in New York on a potential energy-related ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.