Foods That Could Become More Expensive During El Niño
“I am really concerned especially about the poorest of the poor," one expert said of the food shortages the event will cause.
An intense El Niño event is set to intensify global food insecurity and drive up prices for essential agricultural commodities. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that world food prices reached their highest level since 2022 in August, as major crop-producing nations faced the impacts of the record-breaking climate pattern.
Heat-related deaths could exceed 450,000, according to Michael Greenstone, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago. The most severely affected regions are expected to be South and Southeast Asia as well as Western Africa, according to Matin Qaim, a professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Bonn in Germany.
Experts have identified chocolate, olive oil, and coffee as some of the food groups that may see shortfalls and price hikes for U.S. consumers. Wheat production is at a 56-year low, and rice imports could be threatened by drought risks in India, Thailand, and Vietnam, according to Amanda Maycock, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds.
While the U.S. will likely not experience the worst effects, including food shortages, the event is expected to exacerbate existing supply issues in grain-dependent regions of Africa and Asia. Experts predict a potential 16 percent increase in global food commodity prices, with the full impact likely to be realized by the second half of 2028.
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