Why winter cold spells are getting milder
The Beast from the East ravaged much of the U.K. and Europe in February and March 2018, bringing severe storms, snow showers and bitter winds. But as the climate changes, rising average temperatures will affect the severity of extremely cold weather like this.
This study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, reveals that winter cold spells across the Northern Hemisphere have become milder over the past few decades. From 1980 to 2025, cold spells have decreased in frequency by approximately 20 days per decade, and their intensity has dropped by 0.3°C per decade on average. In Europe, cold spells are becoming 0.6 to 0.9°C warmer per decade.
These changes are primarily attributed to the overall increase in global temperatures. Warmer Arctic temperatures, which rise at a faster rate than the rest of the world, disrupt the polar jet stream, preventing cold air from moving toward lower latitudes. Consequently, cold spells have become less frequent, intense, and persistent, especially in northern North America.
The study suggests that reduced temperature variability in this region, possibly due to sea ice loss, is contributing to the diminished severity of cold spells. Therefore, as global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and intensity of cold winter days are expected to decline in much of the Northern Hemisphere.
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