Why Record Heat Failed to Lift U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas prices did not climb despite record-setting heat across the United States, according to data released from June to August. The Henry Hub averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units, a 6% dip from the same period last year. Even as the Lower 48 experienced its hottest July ever, with temperatures soaring to 77°F, electricity demand surged as air conditioners worked overtime.

Solar and wind energy stepped up to meet the heightened demand. Solar generation jumped by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours from June to August compared to the same period in 2025, while wind generation added another 9.3 billion kilowatt-hours. Natural gas-fired generation also climbed by 7.5 billion kilowatt-hours. However, the surge in wind and solar production was nearly four times greater than the rise in natural gas-fired generation during the summer.

Moreover, U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 2% from June to August, with the Permian Basin contributing significantly to this growth. The Energy Information Administration predicts that dry gas production will hit a record 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. Storage facilities entered the April injection season with 1.906 trillion cubic feet of working gas, which was 4% higher than the average of the past five years.

Monthly injections surpassed their respective five-year averages in all months through August, except May. Maintenance at U.S. LNG terminals hindered growth in export demand during the summer, leaving more gas available for power generation and storage. The EIA forecasts that Lower 48 working gas inventories will reach 3.985 trillion cubic feet by the end of October, roughly 5% above the five-year average.

Despite the record-breaking heat, the combination of record production, strong storage injections, and nearly 29 billion kilowatt-hours of additional wind and solar generation kept the gas market well supplied throughout the peak cooling months.