Why haven’t we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.

El Niño, a warm ocean current off the coast of South America, has reached historically high levels. By more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal, it could peak at 4 degrees Celsius in November or December. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather notes that this event has already broken records and is expected to continue growing.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic hurricane season, which began in June, is also unprecedentedly weak. By this time of year, we typically see four hurricanes, two of them major. However, so far, only one hurricane has formed, and it was well after the usual date.

Hurricanes require warm ocean water, humidity, and consistent wind patterns to form and thrive. El Niño increases wind shear in the Atlantic, creating chaotic conditions that hinder hurricane development. Additionally, El Niño brings dry, sinking air to the region, which is unfavorable for hurricane formation.

Despite the warm Atlantic waters, these conditions have led to a remarkably quiet hurricane season. Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher, states that the El Niño is suppressing hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

On the Pacific side of the Americas, however, the situation is quite different. Hurricane Polo, a Category 5 storm, rapidly intensified from a tropical storm in less than 24 hours. This rapid intensification is linked to the warm waters fueled by El Niño.

Scientific projections indicate that El Niño could result in around 451,000 premature deaths globally in the first nine months. It will also affect global weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in some areas, such as California and the Southwest, while causing significant droughts in others, including Southeast Asia, the Amazon rainforest, and parts of Africa.

The combined impacts of El Niño and climate change will require governments to prepare for extreme weather events, such as droughts and wildfires, as well as the potential for intensified hurricanes.