Wheat heads for 4th straight weekly loss on Black Sea export hopes

Chicago wheat futures tumbled on Friday, potentially marking their fourth consecutive weekly decline, as traders anticipate a resurgence in exports through the Black Sea and due to the US dollar's strengthening, which renders US crops less competitive internationally. Corn and soybean futures also slipped, with corn on track for a weekly loss, as investors await a potential breakthrough from the US-China summit regarding Chinese pledges to purchase US agricultural products.

The most actively traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 2.1% to $6.92-1/2 per bushel, reaching its lowest point in a month. This came as prices dropped 3.1% for the week and have fallen from a 3-1/2-year peak of $7.95 at the beginning of September. CBOT soybeans declined 0.9% to $13.05-1/2 per bushel, marking a 0.2% increase from the previous week. Corn slipped 1.4% to $5.20 per bushel, its lowest level in a month, and saw a 1.4% weekly decrease.

The US dollar maintained its gains following a sharp appreciation against a basket of major currencies recently. Market focus centered on renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict and reinstating the Black Sea grain export route. Turkey reported intensified efforts to achieve this goal. However, Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other's grain shipments have disrupted exports and driven up global prices.

Yelena Tyurina, chief analyst at the Russian Grain Union, projected that Russia would export 1 million metric tons of wheat in September, a significant drop from the 5.7 million tons exported in the same month last year. StoneX analyst Bevan Everett noted that Russia and Ukraine's disruptions have not yet boosted US export business, suggesting that soybeans and corn are "ready to react to the outcome of President Xi Jinping's visit."

CBOT wheat prices on the continuously traded series dipped below their 50-day moving average for the first time since July, a bearish technical indicator. In the western US Midwest, soybean processors are offering substantial premiums for immediate deliveries, as continuous rainfall continues to delay the early harvest season.