Venezuela Oil Output Could Hit 1.8 Million Bpd By 2030, Rystad Says

Venezuela's upstream oil sector is witnessing a surge in international operators and capital, with major companies expanding their footprint and new players entering under revised contracts. According to Rystad Energy's models, production could reach 1.6 million barrels per day by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, provided capital deployment, rig availability, and oilfield services scale as required.

Established majors like Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell, along with new entrants like GeoPark, Hunt Oil, and Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy, are actively involved in the country's development. The number of active drilling rigs in Venezuela fell drastically to just two as of August, far below the Hydrocarbons Ministry's target of around 93 rigs by 2028.

Oilfield services are beginning to recover, with Schlumberger reporting about 15 rigs in Venezuela that could be reactivated within a year. Overall, activity would need to increase to around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support Rystad's production projections. Near-term growth will primarily come from brownfield sources, including field rehabilitation, well reactivations, and infill drilling in key areas like NABEP's Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron's Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni's Corocoro field, and GeoPark's Bare block.

Greenfield-led growth is expected to begin in the 2030s, driven by Chevron's Ayacucho 8, Eni's Junin 5, and NABEP's newly awarded Orinoco blocks. If investor interest continues to grow, Venezuelan crude production could potentially reach 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with a nearly equal split between brownfield and greenfield additions.