To kick or receive? NFL coaches still haven’t figured out the overtime coin toss

The NFL overtime coin toss has left coaches perplexed since the league expanded the format to regular season games in 2025. Winning the coin toss no longer guarantees victory, as the receiving team now has a 57.5% chance of winning based on 20 overtime games played since the new rules took effect. A study by cardiologist and football data analyst Dylan Goings suggests that receiving the ball first in overtime provides a 53.14% chance of winning, which is higher than kicking the ball first.

However, the results of his Monte Carlo simulation, which predicts possible outcomes through random guessing, are only as reliable as the assumptions and probabilities used. Goings incorporated feedback from Reddit and conducted sensitivity analysis to account for various factors such as defense strength or turnover-prone quarterbacks.

Former backgammon world champion and game theory expert Frank Frigo supports the idea of receiving the ball first in overtime, citing data that 22.1% of overtime games end on the third possession. While he cannot prove conclusively that receiving outweighs kicking, he believes the potential to have more possessions in overtime plays a significant role in the decision.