The drones Russia could use to strike Europe from its Mediterranean ghost fleet

Since the onset of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, advancements in technology and military equipment have been evident. Russian drones have been spotted flying over European Union territories, including incursions into Poland and Bulgaria, according to a CIA report. The risk of Russian drone strikes on Spain, France, or Italy from the shadow fleet in the Mediterranean is suggested by recent CIA information.

The Ukrainian military has disclosed that their arsenal is not limited to Iranian-made Shahed drones. In the early hours of 27 August, Ukrainian air defenses neutralized or targeted 233 Russian objects in a single night-time bombardment, including 258 drones, two Oniks anti-ship missiles, and several Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles.

Approximately one-third of these drones are jet-powered, while the rest are a combination of Shahed-type drones, Gerbera systems, Banderol missiles, and decoys. This variety illustrates the range of Russia's unmanned arsenal at this stage of the war, ranging from cost-effective swarms to high-speed capabilities.

Much of this drone fleet originates from the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, located 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Covering over 2.8 million square meters, the complex is estimated to have around 15% of its facilities dedicated to war production. Due to Ukrainian strikes on the complex, Russia has relocated much of this production underground.

Russian media cited by The Economist reports that daily production of Geran-2 drones has surpassed 100 units, with plans to reach 500 daily. These drones, also known as Shahed-136, are manufactured at Alabuga. Estimates of production volume vary, but the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates Russia produced around 5,500 drones per month in March 2026. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates August output at around 3,000 Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones, and 2,800 Geran-2 drones per month.

The Geran-2 model, based on Iranian designs and manufactured at Alabuga, has been the primary weapon in most attacks since 2022. It is around 3.5 meters long, with a 2.5-meter wingspan, weighing approximately 200 kilograms. Powered by a 50 horsepower Mado MD-550 piston engine, it has a cruising speed of around 185 km/h and a range of 1,000 to 2,500 kilometers.

The warhead ranges from 30 to 50 kilograms, combining conventional explosives with thermobaric material and metal fragmentation elements. Estimated to cost between $20,000 and $50,000 (€17,000-43,000) each, Ukraine's interception rate is estimated between 65% and 85%.