Staatsanleihen: Ölschock und KI-Boom - Kampf ums Kapital treibt die Renditen

Since months, a phenomenon of rising returns for government bonds has been observed in major economies. The yields on US ten-year bonds reached 5.2 percent, the highest level since 2007. This trend is seen in many countries and is attributed to a high global capital need. However, experts do not consider it a harbinger of a potential debt crisis.

The turbulence, however, poses risks not only to the stock market, but also to the state, up to the individual citizen. A key driver is the high energy prices, which increase inflation expectations and speculation on rising interest rates. In September, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates, citing increased inflation as the reason.

Financial markets anticipate further interest rate hikes, which further drives up government bond yields. Concerns about high debt are also contributing, especially in the US, where the national debt has reached 40 trillion US dollars. The US government's erratic economic and trade policies, under President Donald Trump, are creating doubts about the role of US government bonds as a safe investment.

This dampens demand and raises yields, with US bonds often serving as a barometer for other markets. When yields in the world's largest economy rise, they also rise in other countries. German government bonds have also seen a significant rise in yields due to inflation concerns resulting from high energy costs. In contrast to the US bonds, German bond yields are currently lower.

However, the national debt has also risen sharply in Germany. As an example, ten-year German bonds had a yield of almost zero in spring 2022, compared to the current 3.6 percent. Higher capital market yields mean that borrowing new debt becomes more expensive. Rating agencies have warned in the past that rising bond yields could lead to increased borrowing costs.

The rise in bond yields also affects homebuyers and builders in Germany, as construction costs are based on ten-year government bond rates. Higher yields can make construction plans unfeasible, as even small premiums can be costly for the borrowers. What is the upper limit for these yields? High energy prices have been the strongest drivers of inflation and thus the main drivers of rising yields for months.

The blockage of important energy commodities transport through the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz has been driving up oil and gas costs for months and no solution to the conflict between the US and Iran is in sight. Although there have been several diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, they have not brought significant progress.

Additionally, many technology companies are experiencing a boom in artificial intelligence, leading to a significant capital demand. According to Johannes Mayr, chief economist of Eyb & Wallwitz, a battle for capital is raging, pushing yields upward. The threat of a new debt crisis in the Eurozone exists, despite the yields for government bonds being among the lowest in Europe.

France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, offers significantly higher yields for ten-year bonds at 4.64 percent. Italy, the third-largest economy, has a yield of 4.50 percent. Compared to Italy's 2011 crisis, when the country had to accept yields of more than seven percent for its debt, the current situation is relatively stable.

Central to the stability is the European Central Bank's array of tools to combat potential crises, which proved effective during the previous Eurozone debt crisis. However, falling yields must always be considered. Energy prices have been volatile in recent months, and if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, oil and gas prices could plummet, immediately impacting government bond yields.

Mayr, the economist from Eyb & Wallwitz, expects a similar reaction in the event of a tech industry crisis: "If the KI trend collapses, yields would fall very quickly."