Nearly half a million people could die from El Niño heat by February

A powerful El Niño weather event could cause nearly half a million excess heat-related deaths worldwide by February, according to new projections from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago. This estimate covers the first nine months of the current El Niño, from June 2026 through February 2027. About 239,000 of these deaths are forecast to occur between September and February alone.

Global land temperatures are expected to run around 1.2°C above normal during this period, while the number of extremely hot days could be 44% higher than in a typical year. Researchers describe the event as a preview of temperatures that could become common within the next two decades as the planet continues to warm.

Nigeria is projected to experience the highest number of additional heat-related deaths, with approximately 31,400 deaths between September and February. Indonesia is expected to see 19,300 excess deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,500 additional deaths, India with 15,800, and Brazil with 13,300. Across Africa's Sahel region, which includes Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, about 66,800 extra deaths are projected during the six-month period.

Other regions that could see a significant increase in heat-related deaths include the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, with a combined total of 19,400 additional deaths. The projections do not account for deaths that might result from other El Niño-related effects, such as drought, flooding, wildfires, and food supply disruptions.

The estimates were based on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, taking into consideration local climate, vulnerability, and the ability of communities to adapt. These relationships were then applied to seasonal temperature forecasts and compared with the 1996-2025 average.

The researchers suggest that unusually high temperatures may persist beyond February, potentially leading to a higher eventual toll, particularly in parts of the Northern Hemisphere that enter their warmer months later in 2027. Scientists emphasize that while El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, its effects are becoming more severe due to human-induced climate change. This combination increases the likelihood of communities experiencing temperatures beyond their historical adaptation.