Lula or Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote

Brazil is preparing to vote for its next president, with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jair Messias Bolsonaro as the main contenders. Lula, the last representative of the South American left, addressed the UN General Assembly, reiterating that Brazil does not belong to anyone's backyard, particularly in response to US President Donald Trump's interference in Brazilian politics.

The US has imposed sanctions on a judge who sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in jail for attempting a coup, but lifted them after negotiating with Lula.

Bolsonaro's eldest son, Flavio, is Lula's biggest challenger in the upcoming presidential election on October 4, with polls indicating a tight race between the two. A Bolsonaro victory could potentially lead to better relations with the US, as his father made concessions to the country during his presidency. However, Bolsonaro's experience in foreign policy is questionable, and he has expressed doubts about Brazil's involvement in BRICS, an alliance comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and five other states.

Lula, on the other hand, advocates for multilateral diplomacy and engages in dialogue and trade with all countries.

While political relations with China might cool under a Bolsonaro presidency, economic and commercial ties are likely to remain stable due to Brazil's dependence on China, particularly in the agricultural sector. A potential shift towards China, however, may depend on the pressure exerted by the US. Lula's commitment to global governance issues, such as climate policy and development, may give Brazil a stronger voice in international debates.

Despite its immense natural resources, Brazil's ability to act on the global stage remains limited, but its role as a key protagonist in the Global South, especially under Lula's leadership, continues to be significant.