Kalshi, Polymarket Capture Nearly Half of NFL App Downloads

Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for nearly half of the NFL betting app downloads recorded in Week 2, as reported by Sensor Tower data. The two prediction markets exchanges led sportsbook apps in app downloads during the season's first two weeks, capturing 47.5% of the total downloads. Kalshi logged 706,000 downloads, while Polymarket added 624,000, with Polymarket leading all tracked operators at 1.37 million downloads, followed closely by Kalshi at 1.31 million.

DraftKings and FanDuel trailed with 805,000 and 502,000 downloads respectively. The sportsbook apps' weaker performance was attributed to challenging year-over-year comparisons and the lack of new state launches and customer-acquisition efforts seen in last season. Week 3 of the NFL season opened on Thursday night with Green Bay hosting Atlanta.

Week 2 saw unpredictable results, with New Orleans and Cleveland each winning as 8.5-point underdogs, and underdogs cashing in 10 of 16 games. Citizens' analysis suggests prediction-market adoption may be expanding the overall wagering market rather than simply drawing customers away from sportsbooks. The firm expects sportsbook handle growth to accelerate later in the year as operators clear last season's comparisons.

While Kalshi's pricing advantage is narrower than its download lead, it still holds an edge in parlays, with an average implied vig of 4.22% across 30 pricing observations, compared to 4.43% at FanDuel and 4.50% at DraftKings, excluding transaction fees.