Indian Rupee: RBI interventions cap losses against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale reports that the USD/INR exchange rate has repeatedly tested 96.00 against the US Dollar but has been unable to break above this level. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has consistently intervened in the foreign exchange market to maintain control over the situation. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta expressed optimism that the Indian Rupee might stabilize and potentially appreciate in value.

Despite this, higher oil prices and rising global yields continue to weigh on local rates, driving the 10-year Indian government bond yield to just one basis point below its May peak of 7.143%. In India, the USD/INR exchange rate has consistently hovered around the 96.00 mark without successfully breaking through. This occurrence can be attributed to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) proactive interventions in the foreign exchange market.

Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting that the Rupee could stabilize and even appreciate from its current levels. Nevertheless, the Rupee's resilience is being tested by rising oil prices and escalating global yields, which are exerting downward pressure on local interest rates. Consequently, the 10-year Indian government bond yield has approached its May high of 7.143%.