Immobilien: Studie hält Vergesellschaftung von Wohnungen in Berlin für finanzierbar

A study has concluded that consolidating large apartment blocks in Berlin is financially viable, though it would not resolve the city's housing shortage, according to economists from the Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research at the Hans-Böckler Foundation. The study, published Friday, suggests that substantial redevelopment would be required, but the consolidation could serve as a complementary measure to alleviate the affordability issue of rents.

The researchers estimate the compensation for relocating approximately 210,000 apartments at around 13.5 billion euros, which could be financially feasible with careful planning without impacting the Berlin state budget or causing cuts.

The experts recommend transferring these apartments to the six existing municipal housing companies, which would minimize legal, financial, and organizational risks. They advise against establishing a new housing institution, as proposed by the initiative "Take Back German Housing." Establishing a consortium of private developers to increase the public housing stock faster and more significantly than through new construction is seen as a way to influence the overall rental market, according to the study by IMK Director Sebastian Dullien, Wirtschaftsweise Achim Truger, Patrick Kaczmarczyk, and Tom Krebs from the University of Mannheim.

With a 30% equity share, the state would need to provide around four billion euros in equity capital, while the remaining 9.5 billion euros would be financed through outside debt.

The public sector could still generate a net gain of 543 million euros annually from the consolidated apartments, even with a permanent rent control, and would be required to provide 345 million euros in capital repayment. Interest payments and repayment of all taken loans would be sustainably secured, emphasized the economists.

The legal basis for such consolidation is Article 15 of the German Constitution. A commission of experts appointed by the Berlin Senate reached a majority consensus that consolidation is generally legally permissible. In 2021, a majority of voters in Berlin approved through a referendum the expropriation of large apartment complexes.

The housing issue has become a central social issue in many German major cities, as low and middle-income households find it increasingly difficult to afford rising rents. According to the credit rating agency Scope, a potential expropriation of major apartment blocks in Berlin does not necessarily threaten the city's top credit rating, but could affect the rating of affected companies.

Credit rating analysts at Scope stated that such a measure would not automatically lead to a downgrade of Berlin's rating, but the specific implementation, the compensation amount, its financing, and the impact on the state's budget and debt development would be crucial. As of July, Scope had confirmed Berlin's credit rating at the top AAA level, citing relatively high economic growth and favorable demographics.