IA y criptos: del susto a la ruptura al alza

Next Wednesday, pay close attention to the closing of the monthly wicks in both bitcoin and ethereum. A week ago, we discussed the 6% drop with a downtrend gap in chips (SOX), the most representative sector of AI. Interestingly, four sessions later, that gap closed. What does this mean in terms of technical analysis? It means that the recent speculation about AI slowing down due to security concerns hasn't been believed by the market.

It's a new opportunity to buy cheaper. SOX of the chips not only left behind the downtrend direction from recent months but also confirmed a small double bottom of bullish implications. In other words, the technology leading the way is gaining strength for now. In this sense, and alongside rumors of AI slowing, Monday saw Meta (formerly Facebook) soar more than 11% after its AI agent, Muse, topped the list of free Apple applications following its launch at the beginning of the month.

Doubts about AI were thus cleared, while Meta confirmed the break of a large symmetrical triangle (lower highs and higher lows), which could push its price above $1,000 in the medium term. Changing the subject, if you recall, two weeks ago we titled our article "Bitcoin, at caramel time." And in it, we argued why the conditions were favorable to bet on a new bullish cycle in bitcoin.

Well, the week began with bitcoin jumping eagerly above May's highs for three sessions after the US Senate blocked the Clarity Act, which aimed to provide legal certainty to the crypto sector, shaping the first major bullish breakout since the last large market drop in early October last year at $127,000. Apart from the digressions, it can be said that bitcoin seems to be confirming a broad double bottom of bullish implications that could launch it towards the vicinity of its recent highs in the coming months.

However, even though the sensations continue to improve week by week, we will be very attentive to the closing of the September monthly wick next Wednesday. Why? Because the monthly futures (CME) of bitcoin and ethereum, the two main cryptocurrencies leading the way, present imposing monthly downtrend gaps in the corresponding February wicks: $84,560 for bitcoin and $2,709 for ethereum.

And to close these downtrend gaps, which by definition act as powerful resistance, we need prices to close above the mentioned references on Wednesday. And both must come together to avoid any divergence. Once these two gaps are successfully eliminated from that point forward, aside from occasional corrections, we can speak of a before and after in bitcoin and the entire ecosystem it brings along.

In this sense, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, appears to be shaping a broad symmetrical double bottom of bullish implications that will activate if it can confirm above May's highs soon.