HelloFresh cuts 2026 outlook as marketing cuts hit customer growth

HelloFresh, the German meal-kit company, has lowered its revenue and profit forecast for 2026 after experiencing a steeper-than-anticipated reduction in marketing spending during the third quarter. The company now anticipates a 9% to 11% decline in revenue in constant currency, down from its previous forecast of 3% to 6% decline.

This new outlook is even more pessimistic than the 6.9% average among analysts. For the third quarter, HelloFresh expects its revenue to decline 11% to 12% year-on-year, compared to the consensus expecting a 6.8% decline. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now forecasted to be between €350 million and €370 million, falling short of the previous range of €375 million to €425 million and the consensus of €375.6 million.

The company's weaker outlook is primarily due to the scale of its Q3 marketing cuts, which were larger than in the first half of the year, limiting customer acquisition during the crucial back-to-school period. HelloFresh is set to release its final third-quarter and nine-month results on November 5. In August, the company reported a 7.8% fall in second-quarter constant-currency revenue, slightly below analyst expectations, while adjusted EBITDA of €121.1 million largely met forecasts.

Despite this, HelloFresh maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of €375 million to €425 million, indicating that revenue may fall toward the lower end of its 3% to 6% decline range, with the rest of the year's performance depending on the success of the back-to-school campaign.