Europe must choose between power and dependence

In 2027, national elections will be held in nine countries representing over half of the European Union's population. These elections will revolve around fundamental questions about whether Europe wants to remain independent or allow decisions to be made elsewhere. As the US reduces its commitments to allies, the urgency of this choice becomes clear. The Alternative for Germany's recent victory in Saxony-Anhalt serves as a warning for Europe.

To maintain control over one's destiny, Europe must defend itself, support Ukraine, uphold democracy, uphold the rule of law, and harness AI for the common good. It must also secure its military, scientific, technological, energy, and industrial autonomy. While the ingredients for European power exist, they have yet to be combined effectively. Issues remain unresolved, such as financing reindustrialization and providing a social vision for AI.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney highlighted the breakdown of the international order due to the growing use of energy, technology, finance, and supply chains as instruments of power and coercion. He emphasized the need for middle powers to act together, putting this task on the EU's political agenda. However, Europe must go beyond middle-power status and become a democratic superpower that is powerful, sovereign, and non-imperial.

Europe's strengths and weaknesses must be carefully assessed. While it may be powerless in some areas, it should not be presumed powerless in others. The EU must evolve from a mere market with shared rules and procedures to a real power capable of protecting, investing, anticipating, deciding, and acting when national-level policymaking is insufficient. The choice is not between one's country and "Europe"; it is between declining individually or exercising power together.

Creating a democratic power capable of acting swiftly in a crisis would establish common capabilities in decisive areas while preserving the subsidiarity principle. Pooling investments that require scale could overcome the dilemma of spending more on defense at the expense of other crucial areas. Technological sovereignty encompasses more than just limiting AI risks; it also involves harnessing new tools to enhance healthcare, education, research, and governance.

Media, especially public-service media, play a vital role in managing the asymmetry between national and European elections. Joint investigations and transnational debates will give the 2027 elections a European perspective, fostering a sense of shared consciousness. The Europa Power Initiative aims to bring coherence to Europe's efforts in adapting to geopolitical challenges and ensuring that Europe becomes a democratic, sustainable, and responsible power.