Ethiopian army battles Tigray rebels in north as fears of wider war grow

Addis Ababa, September 25 - Ethiopian forces engaged in intense battles overnight to thwart an attack by Tigray rebels in the Afar region, according to humanitarian sources. Reports indicate an internet outage in northern Ethiopia, coinciding with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) declaring the start of a "full-blown war" against the federal government.

The rebels have seized local airports and launched attacks into neighboring Afar and Amhara states. Concerns arise as locals recall the previous telecommunications blackout and supply blockade during the 2020-2022 civil war, which resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths. Online monitoring firm Netblocks confirmed an "internet disruption in northern Ethiopia" matching reports of the telecoms shutdown in Tigray.

The humanitarian source in Afar reported "heavy fighting overnight" near the town of Abala, on the border with Tigray, where federal forces successfully pushed back the rebels. Similarly, heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone, Amhara, near the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela, famous for Ethiopia's rock churches. Analysts speculate that the TPLF is employing a strategy reminiscent of the last war, advancing south through Amhara towards Addis Ababa while simultaneously targeting Afar to cut off supplies from Djibouti, a major source of international trade including fuel.

The TPLF has allied with six other armed groups across the nation, aiming to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Edward Bach, from consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, stated that the alliance's objective is to seize settlements and key infrastructure routes to cripple federal supply logistics. Despite the government's military superiority, boasting a large arsenal of drones, a standing army of 500,000, and external support from the United Arab Emirates, the situation remains precarious.

The US, having recently lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea, expressed disappointment at the TPLF's offensive, emphasizing that the "national emergency... has expired". The conflict poses a threat of escalation to neighboring Eritrea, which fears Ethiopia's intention to invade to access the Red Sea. Amidst the unrest, panic buying of basic goods has surged in Tigray, with residents fearing another telecommunications and supply cut-off, similar to the 2020-2022 war.