El Niño’s Estimated Death Toll From Extreme Heat Alone: 451,000 by February
This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the super El Niño by February, according to estimates by climate scientists. The toll is on top of the early deaths resulting from temperatures […]
An estimated 451,000 deaths by February are projected to occur due to extreme heat brought on by the super El Niño, according to climate scientists. This grim tally, already higher than the deaths caused by the climate crisis, will impact countries from Indonesia to India, Nigeria to the United States. In addition to heat-related fatalities, droughts, wildfires, and flooding are expected to contribute to further losses.
Researchers have pinpointed regions where targeted measures can be implemented to save lives, such as improved heat forecasts, cooling centers, additional medical staff during peak heat times, and protections for outdoor workers. El Niños, while natural events, may be exacerbated by global warming, with the current phenomenon described as "mind-blowing" and potentially "Godzilla-level."
Scientists have noted that the current heat is exceeding previous records by a significant margin. The 1877-1878 El Niño, for instance, resulted in over 50 million deaths due to drought and famine. Co-author Michael Greenstone of the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago emphasized that the projected deaths represent a vast array of individuals, including parents, children, grandparents, neighbors, and family members.
The report estimates deaths from June 2026 to February 2027, though elevated heat-related fatalities are anticipated to persist until June or July 2027. Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil are anticipated to be the most affected countries in the following six months, with the United States ranking in the top 20 most vulnerable nations, with 3,500 additional projected heat-related deaths.
The researchers underline the urgency of the situation, stating that while emergency responses can be enhanced to save lives this year, the current extreme temperatures may soon become the new norm, necessitating proactive measures to prevent a constant state of emergency. The projections, made using peer-reviewed methods tracking temperature and heat deaths in 24,378 global regions, were combined with forecasts for increased temperatures due to El Niño.
The report will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal, but the urgency of the findings prompted Greenstone to share the results promptly. The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño is likely to push 50 million people into acute hunger and drive up food prices. The report calls for increased food security efforts to counteract the impacts of El Niño.
Written by urgent.news from Mother Jones's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
