El Niño in Kenya: Why maize, milk and food prices could rise further

Kenya faces potential food price increases as the country braces for an El Niño-induced rainy season, which starts in October. The Kenya Meteorological Department predicts a 99% chance of above-normal rainfall from October to December 2026, with the rains expected to persist into February 2027. The World Meteorological Organisation has also warned about wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa, noting that excessive rainfall could damage crops, infrastructure, and supply chains.

Kenya's food system is already under pressure, with food and non-alcoholic beverage prices up 9% year-on-year in August, and transport costs rising by 15.7%. Overall annual inflation stood at 6.6%. Kenya's maize market is currently facing a significant supply gap due to poor rainfall and crop failures in major growing areas. The government plans to import 25 million 90-kilogramme bags of maize to bridge the anticipated deficit.

The upcoming rains could provide relief by improving soil moisture and pasture. However, excessive rainfall poses risks such as flooding, crop destruction, and infrastructure damage. While the rains may improve pasture and feed availability for the dairy sector, heavy rainfall could disrupt supply chains due to damaged roads and collection routes. This means the impact of the rains on milk prices will depend on the amount of rainfall and whether farmers, processors, and retailers can maintain the supply chain.

Consumers' primary concern is the potential for rising food prices when weather, production, and transport problems coincide. Kenya's food system relies heavily on roads for moving maize, milk, vegetables, and other products. Heavy rainfall and flooding can increase transportation times, damage roads, and raise distribution costs. Fuel prices also play a significant role, with Nairobi diesel priced at Ksh217.86 per litre as of the August 15-September 14 EPRA price schedule.

While above-normal rainfall could improve pasture, water availability, and crop conditions in some areas, government maize imports and other interventions may help cushion consumers from shortages. However, if demand remains strong while supply is disrupted, some food prices could continue to rise. The question for Kenya is whether its already-strained food system can keep farms, roads, milk collection, maize supplies, and markets functioning when the rains arrive.

The outcome will determine whether the rains bring much-needed agricultural relief or result in disrupted supply chains and rising food prices on supermarket shelves and household budgets.