Board of Peace has met with UNRWA despite saying it has no Gaza role, agency’s ex-chief says

The recent "Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict" proposed by US President Donald Trump in November has been met with skepticism, primarily due to the unresolved political and security issues in the wider region. The plan, however, has successfully secured the release of Israeli hostages and a significant number of Palestinian detainees, along with increased humanitarian aid and medical evacuations.

Nevertheless, 1.9 million displaced Gazans are struggling to survive amidst the destruction of their homes and livelihoods, and the ongoing conflict continues to claim lives and cause injuries. The plan remains the best hope for easing the ongoing suffering, as both Israel and Hamas have begrudgingly agreed to its implementation.

A Board of Peace, consisting of nearly 30 countries, has been formed to oversee the reconstruction efforts, which are estimated to cost $71.4 billion over a decade. The board has proposed a six-month plan of $2.45 billion to begin the rebuilding process. Israel has agreed to deploy 200 troops for a pilot deployment near Rafah and 12,000 vetted local police, pending Israeli permission to enter the territory.

A technocratic Palestinian-led "National Committee for the Administration of Gaza" has also been appointed, currently exiled pending Israeli permission.

Central to the plan is a 15-point roadmap covering transitional governance, economic, and social recovery. The plan emphasizes a terror-free Gaza, full demilitarization under independent supervision, and Israeli military withdrawal, all of which are tied to specific milestones. This raises the question of who should disarm first: Israel or Hamas? A closer look at the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) components of other conflict-to-peace transitions may provide valuable lessons.

DDR efforts have been implemented in various post-colonial settlements, post-apartheid societies, and several peace operations. However, few of these efforts have resulted in durable peace. Between 1945 and 2009, 57% of civil wars relapsed, and 90% of civil wars in the 21st century broke out in places that had already experienced a civil war.

Factors contributing to these failures include the silencing of guns without politics, lack of reciprocity, weak verification mechanisms, and a lack of opportunities for disarmed fighters.

Successful DDR efforts, such as those in Northern Ireland, Nepal, El Salvador, Mozambique, and the Spanish Basque Country, highlight the importance of disarmament following a political settlement and the provision of alternative livelihoods to disarmed fighters. Additionally, trusted, confidential verification mechanisms are crucial for preventing disarmament from being perceived as a surrender.