Why India wants peace in Ukraine—and China doesn’t

India and China appear to share the same stance on the Ukraine war at first glance: they maintain close ties with Russia, import Russian oil, and oppose the Western campaign to isolate Moscow. However, upon closer inspection, a fundamental difference emerges: India seeks an end to the war, while China remains unconcerned about the fighting's continuation.

The divergence in positions stems from differing priorities regarding their relationship with one another. For years, Russia has been a crucial power for India to counterbalance China. This relationship served as a buffer and hedge, providing India with some geopolitical room to maneuver. Nevertheless, this arrangement becomes untenable if Russia becomes dependent on China, which is exactly what the Ukraine war has wrought.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country faced severe Western sanctions, losing access to Western goods and markets. Consequently, China became Russia's primary energy consumer, benefiting from reduced rates, and its largest trading partner, supplying machinery, electronics, and industrial goods that Russia could no longer procure from the West.

This shift starkly contrasts with the "no limits" partnership once envisioned by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, just prior to the war. China's growing influence over Russia aligns with Xi Jinping's objectives and explains his reluctance to push for a negotiated peace with Ukraine. Xi's rhetoric about a "political settlement" is merely empty words, as he refrains from applying pressure on Putin to seek peace.

India's interest in Russia's well-being becomes paramount as Russia weakens and China gains leverage. Small wonder that India encourages the Kremlin to pursue peace. Recently, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi presented Putin with a 2,000-year-old Indian treatise, Tirukkuṟaḷ, emphasizing compassion and leadership, highlighting the need for compassion and leadership amidst the ongoing conflict.

This divergent perspective between India and China underscores a broader contest over the regional order in Asia, with one favoring a more stable balance of power and the other aspiring to dominance.