US Dollar: Rally starting to look stretched – ING
ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar has jumped, with DXY above 101.0, supported by strong US PMIs, higher Oil and soft risk sentiment, but now looks stretched versus fundamentals.
The US dollar has recently experienced a rally, with the DXY index surpassing 101.0. Strong US PMIs, rising oil prices, and subdued risk sentiment have fueled the bullish sentiment, yet the surge appears to be stretching beyond fundamental support. ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole notes this, cautioning that further upside may not be sustainable without any material upside surprises in upcoming US data releases.
If this does not happen, a correction is expected, potentially bringing the DXY back to the 100-100.5 range. USD/JPY also poses a downside risk, as Japanese authorities might intervene, similar to their actions last week, which could weaken the dollar. The recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could provide some relief, as Trump has a history of adopting a more conciliatory tone in face-to-face encounters.
Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Williams, Barkin, Hammack, and Paulson, will be closely watched. The data calendar remains relatively quiet, adding to the current market uncertainty.
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