Swiss Franc: SNB intervention bias dialed down – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note that EUR/CHF has rebounded about 0.3% after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left rates at 0.0% but softened its FX intervention language.
Societe Generale strategists have observed that the EUR/CHF exchange rate has risen approximately 0.3% following the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision to adjust its foreign exchange intervention language. The bank now indicates a willingness to act only as required, with inflation forecasts predicting 0.7-0.8% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027, and maintaining 0.8% for 2028.
This is significantly lower than the European Central Bank's forecast. The SNB's rate differential with the Eurozone is expected to widen by an additional 25 basis points within the next three months. The central bank's decision to downgrade its intervention alert level has enabled a more measured approach, with the SNB now only being "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary."
This shift in language represents a more nuanced appraisal of the EUR/CHF situation, as noted by Societe Generale analysts.
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